{"id":155205,"date":"2025-08-31T09:49:04","date_gmt":"2025-08-31T12:49:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.orc.com.br\/novo\/?p=155205"},"modified":"2025-08-31T09:49:04","modified_gmt":"2025-08-31T12:49:04","slug":"pesquisa-da-associacao-das-emissoras-de-radio-e-tv-de-sp-aponta-tarcisio-de-freitas-com-ampla-vantagem-na-disputa-pelo-governo-de-sp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.orc.com.br\/novo\/politica\/pesquisa-da-associacao-das-emissoras-de-radio-e-tv-de-sp-aponta-tarcisio-de-freitas-com-ampla-vantagem-na-disputa-pelo-governo-de-sp.html","title":{"rendered":"Pesquisa da Associa\u00e7\u00e3o das emissoras de r\u00e1dio e TV de SP aponta Tarc\u00edsio de Freitas com ampla vantagem na disputa pelo governo de SP"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"287\" data-end=\"478\">A Associa\u00e7\u00e3o das Emissoras de R\u00e1dio e Televis\u00e3o do Estado de S\u00e3o Paulo (AESP) encomendou ao\u00a0<strong data-start=\"379\" data-end=\"397\">Instituto GERP<\/strong>\u00a0uma pesquisa para avaliar cen\u00e1rios da disputa ao\u00a0<strong>Governo de S\u00e3o Paulo<\/strong>\u00a0em 2026.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"480\" data-end=\"693\">O levantamento foi realizado entre os dias\u00a0<strong data-start=\"523\" data-end=\"552\">14 e 20 de agosto de 2025<\/strong>, com\u00a0<strong data-start=\"558\" data-end=\"581\">1.000 entrevistados<\/strong>\u00a0em todo o Estado. A margem de erro \u00e9 de\u00a0<strong data-start=\"622\" data-end=\"649\">3,16 pontos percentuais<\/strong>\u00a0e o intervalo de confian\u00e7a de\u00a0<strong data-start=\"680\" data-end=\"690\">95,55%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"775\" data-end=\"799\"><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"801\" data-end=\"950\"><strong>Resumo dos Cen\u00e1rios<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"801\" data-end=\"950\">Nos tr\u00eas cen\u00e1rios em que aparece,\u00a0<strong data-start=\"835\" data-end=\"899\">Tarc\u00edsio de Freitas (Republicanos) lidera com ampla vantagem<\/strong>, variando entre 38% e 40% das inten\u00e7\u00f5es de voto.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"952\" data-end=\"1143\">Sem o atual governador, o cen\u00e1rio se abre:\u00a0<strong data-start=\"995\" data-end=\"1073\">Geraldo Alckmin (PSB), Astronauta Marcos Pontes (PL) e Ricardo Nunes (MDB)<\/strong>\u00a0dividem a prefer\u00eancia do eleitorado.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1145\" data-end=\"1415\">Outros nomes como\u00a0<strong data-start=\"1163\" data-end=\"1186\">M\u00e1rcio Fran\u00e7a (PSB)<\/strong>,\u00a0<strong data-start=\"1188\" data-end=\"1214\">Alexandre Padilha (PT)<\/strong>\u00a0e\u00a0<strong data-start=\"1217\" data-end=\"1240\">\u00c9rika Hilton (PSOL)<\/strong>\u00a0aparecem em patamares menores, variando entre 5% e 12%. J\u00e1 os eleitores que n\u00e3o escolheriam nenhum candidato ou est\u00e3o indecisos chegam a quase 30% em determinados cen\u00e1rios.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"719\" data-end=\"747\"><strong data-start=\"719\" data-end=\"745\">Cen\u00e1rio a cen\u00e1rio<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"719\" data-end=\"747\"><strong data-start=\"719\" data-end=\"745\">Cen\u00e1rio 1 \u2013 Estimulado\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"748\" data-end=\"1066\">\n<li data-start=\"748\" data-end=\"792\">\n<p data-start=\"750\" data-end=\"792\">Tarc\u00edsio de Freitas (Republicanos) \u2013 38%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"793\" data-end=\"824\">\n<p data-start=\"795\" data-end=\"824\">Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) \u2013 15%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"825\" data-end=\"853\">\n<p data-start=\"827\" data-end=\"853\">\u00c9rika Hilton (PSOL) \u2013 7%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"854\" data-end=\"882\">\n<p data-start=\"856\" data-end=\"882\">Ricardo Nunes (MDB) \u2013 5%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"883\" data-end=\"914\">\n<p data-start=\"885\" data-end=\"914\">Alexandre Padilha (PT) \u2013 5%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"915\" data-end=\"943\">\n<p data-start=\"917\" data-end=\"943\">M\u00e1rcio Fran\u00e7a (PSB) \u2013 4%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"944\" data-end=\"982\">\n<p data-start=\"946\" data-end=\"982\">Astronauta Marcos Pontes (PL) \u2013 4%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"983\" data-end=\"1011\">\n<p data-start=\"985\" data-end=\"1011\">Andr\u00e9 do Prado (PL) \u2013 1%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1012\" data-end=\"1033\">\n<p data-start=\"1014\" data-end=\"1033\">Nenhum deles \u2013 8%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1034\" data-end=\"1066\">\n<p data-start=\"1036\" data-end=\"1066\">N\u00e3o sabe\/N\u00e3o respondeu \u2013 13%]\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1068\" data-end=\"1096\"><strong data-start=\"1068\" data-end=\"1094\">Cen\u00e1rio 2 \u2013 Estimulado<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1097\" data-end=\"1326\">\n<li data-start=\"1097\" data-end=\"1126\">\n<p data-start=\"1099\" data-end=\"1126\">Tarc\u00edsio de Freitas \u2013 40%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1127\" data-end=\"1152\">\n<p data-start=\"1129\" data-end=\"1152\">Geraldo Alckmin \u2013 15%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1153\" data-end=\"1174\">\n<p data-start=\"1155\" data-end=\"1174\">\u00c9rika Hilton \u2013 6%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1175\" data-end=\"1197\">\n<p data-start=\"1177\" data-end=\"1197\">M\u00e1rcio Fran\u00e7a \u2013 6%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1198\" data-end=\"1224\">\n<p data-start=\"1200\" data-end=\"1224\">Alexandre Padilha \u2013 5%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1225\" data-end=\"1247\">\n<p data-start=\"1227\" data-end=\"1247\">Astronauta Marcos Pontes \u2013 5%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1248\" data-end=\"1271\">\n<p data-start=\"1250\" data-end=\"1271\">Andr\u00e9 do Prado \u2013 0%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1272\" data-end=\"1293\">\n<p data-start=\"1274\" data-end=\"1293\">Nenhum deles \u2013 8%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1294\" data-end=\"1326\">\n<p data-start=\"1296\" data-end=\"1326\">N\u00e3o sabe\/N\u00e3o respondeu \u2013 14%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1328\" data-end=\"1356\"><strong data-start=\"1328\" data-end=\"1354\">Cen\u00e1rio 3 \u2013 Estimulado<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1357\" data-end=\"1564\">\n<li data-start=\"1357\" data-end=\"1386\">\n<p data-start=\"1359\" data-end=\"1386\">Tarc\u00edsio de Freitas \u2013 39%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1387\" data-end=\"1412\">\n<p data-start=\"1389\" data-end=\"1412\">Geraldo Alckmin \u2013 20%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1413\" data-end=\"1439\">\n<p data-start=\"1415\" data-end=\"1439\">Alexandre Padilha \u2013 6%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1440\" data-end=\"1462\">\n<p data-start=\"1442\" data-end=\"1462\">M\u00e1rcio Fran\u00e7a \u2013 6%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1463\" data-end=\"1485\">\n<p data-start=\"1465\" data-end=\"1485\">Astronauta Marcos Pontes \u2013 5%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1486\" data-end=\"1509\">\n<p data-start=\"1488\" data-end=\"1509\">Andr\u00e9 do Prado \u2013 1%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1510\" data-end=\"1531\">\n<p data-start=\"1512\" data-end=\"1531\">Nenhum deles \u2013 9%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1532\" data-end=\"1564\">\n<p data-start=\"1534\" data-end=\"1564\">N\u00e3o sabe\/N\u00e3o respondeu \u2013 13%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1566\" data-end=\"1609\"><strong data-start=\"1566\" data-end=\"1607\">Cen\u00e1rio 4 \u2013 Estimulado (sem Tarc\u00edsio)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1610\" data-end=\"1808\">\n<li data-start=\"1610\" data-end=\"1635\">\n<p data-start=\"1612\" data-end=\"1635\">Geraldo Alckmin \u2013 21%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1636\" data-end=\"1659\">\n<p data-start=\"1638\" data-end=\"1659\">Astronauta Marcos Pontes \u2013 15%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1660\" data-end=\"1683\">\n<p data-start=\"1662\" data-end=\"1683\">Ricardo Nunes \u2013 15%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1684\" data-end=\"1705\">\n<p data-start=\"1686\" data-end=\"1705\">\u00c9rika Hilton \u2013 8%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1706\" data-end=\"1728\">\n<p data-start=\"1708\" data-end=\"1728\">M\u00e1rcio Fran\u00e7a \u2013 6%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1729\" data-end=\"1752\">\n<p data-start=\"1731\" data-end=\"1752\">Andr\u00e9 do Prado \u2013 2%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1753\" data-end=\"1775\">\n<p data-start=\"1755\" data-end=\"1775\">Nenhum deles \u2013 19%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1776\" data-end=\"1808\">\n<p data-start=\"1778\" data-end=\"1808\">N\u00e3o sabe\/N\u00e3o respondeu \u2013 15%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1810\" data-end=\"1863\"><strong data-start=\"1810\" data-end=\"1861\">Cen\u00e1rio 5 \u2013 Estimulado<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1810\" data-end=\"1863\"><strong data-start=\"1810\" data-end=\"1861\">(sem Tarc\u00edsio e Alckmin)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1864\" data-end=\"2040\">\n<li data-start=\"1864\" data-end=\"1887\">\n<p data-start=\"1866\" data-end=\"1887\">Astronauta Marcos Pontes \u2013 19%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1888\" data-end=\"1911\">\n<p data-start=\"1890\" data-end=\"1911\">M\u00e1rcio Fran\u00e7a \u2013 16%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1912\" data-end=\"1933\">\n<p data-start=\"1914\" data-end=\"1933\">\u00c9rika Hilton \u2013 9%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1934\" data-end=\"1960\">\n<p data-start=\"1936\" data-end=\"1960\">Alexandre Padilha \u2013 8%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1961\" data-end=\"1984\">\n<p data-start=\"1963\" data-end=\"1984\">Andr\u00e9 do Prado \u2013 3%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1985\" data-end=\"2007\">\n<p data-start=\"1987\" data-end=\"2007\">Nenhum deles \u2013 29%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2008\" data-end=\"2040\">\n<p data-start=\"2010\" data-end=\"2040\">N\u00e3o sabe\/N\u00e3o respondeu \u2013 15%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2042\" data-end=\"2070\"><strong data-start=\"2042\" data-end=\"2068\">Cen\u00e1rio 6 \u2013 Estimulado<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2071\" data-end=\"2248\">\n<li data-start=\"2071\" data-end=\"2094\">\n<p data-start=\"2073\" data-end=\"2094\">Astronauta Marcos Pontes \u2013 17%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2095\" data-end=\"2118\">\n<p data-start=\"2097\" data-end=\"2118\">Ricardo Nunes \u2013 16%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2119\" data-end=\"2142\">\n<p data-start=\"2121\" data-end=\"2142\">M\u00e1rcio Fran\u00e7a \u2013 12%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2143\" data-end=\"2165\">\n<p data-start=\"2145\" data-end=\"2165\">\u00c9rika Hilton \u2013 10%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2166\" data-end=\"2192\">\n<p data-start=\"2168\" data-end=\"2192\">Alexandre Padilha \u2013 7%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2193\" data-end=\"2215\">\n<p data-start=\"2195\" data-end=\"2215\">Nenhum deles \u2013 23%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2216\" data-end=\"2248\">\n<p data-start=\"2218\" data-end=\"2248\">N\u00e3o sabe\/N\u00e3o respondeu \u2013 15%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2250\" data-end=\"2278\"><strong data-start=\"2250\" data-end=\"2276\">Cen\u00e1rio 7 \u2013 Estimulado<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2279\" data-end=\"2504\">\n<li data-start=\"2279\" data-end=\"2302\">\n<p data-start=\"2281\" data-end=\"2302\">Ricardo Nunes \u2013 17%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2303\" data-end=\"2326\">\n<p data-start=\"2305\" data-end=\"2326\">Astronauta Marcos Pontes \u2013 16%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2327\" data-end=\"2350\">\n<p data-start=\"2329\" data-end=\"2350\">M\u00e1rcio Fran\u00e7a \u2013 11%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2351\" data-end=\"2372\">\n<p data-start=\"2353\" data-end=\"2372\">\u00c9rika Hilton \u2013 9%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2373\" data-end=\"2399\">\n<p data-start=\"2375\" data-end=\"2399\">Alexandre Padilha \u2013 7%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2425\" data-end=\"2448\">\n<p data-start=\"2427\" data-end=\"2448\">Andr\u00e9 do Prado \u2013 1%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2449\" data-end=\"2471\">\n<p data-start=\"2451\" data-end=\"2471\">Nenhum deles \u2013 25%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2472\" data-end=\"2504\">\n<p data-start=\"2474\" data-end=\"2504\">N\u00e3o sabe\/N\u00e3o respondeu \u2013 15%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2506\" data-end=\"2534\"><strong data-start=\"2506\" data-end=\"2532\">Cen\u00e1rio 8 \u2013 Estimulado<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2535\" data-end=\"2713\">\n<li data-start=\"2535\" data-end=\"2560\">\n<p data-start=\"2537\" data-end=\"2560\">Geraldo Alckmin \u2013 18%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2561\" data-end=\"2584\">\n<p data-start=\"2563\" data-end=\"2584\">Ricardo Nunes \u2013 18%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2585\" data-end=\"2608\">\n<p data-start=\"2587\" data-end=\"2608\">Astronauta Marcos Pontes \u2013 17%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2609\" data-end=\"2630\">\n<p data-start=\"2611\" data-end=\"2630\">\u00c9rika Hilton \u2013 9%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2631\" data-end=\"2657\">\n<p data-start=\"2633\" data-end=\"2657\">Alexandre Padilha \u2013 5%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2658\" data-end=\"2680\">\n<p data-start=\"2660\" data-end=\"2680\">Nenhum deles \u2013 19%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2681\" data-end=\"2713\">\n<p data-start=\"2683\" data-end=\"2713\">N\u00e3o sabe\/N\u00e3o respondeu \u2013 15%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>*Devido ao arredondamento, a soma dos percentuais pode ser diferente de 100%.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"409\" data-end=\"871\">Os n\u00fameros mostram que,\u00a0<strong data-start=\"433\" data-end=\"567\">quando Tarc\u00edsio de Freitas \u00e9 inclu\u00eddo nos cen\u00e1rios, ele concentra a maioria das inten\u00e7\u00f5es de voto e se mant\u00e9m isolado na lideran\u00e7a<\/strong>. J\u00e1 nos cen\u00e1rios em que seu nome n\u00e3o aparece, a disputa fica mais aberta:\u00a0<strong data-start=\"642\" data-end=\"692\">Geraldo Alckmin, Marcos Pontes e Ricardo Nunes<\/strong>\u00a0dividem a prefer\u00eancia do eleitorado em situa\u00e7\u00e3o de equil\u00edbrio t\u00e9cnico, enquanto cresce o contingente de indecisos e eleitores que n\u00e3o escolheriam nenhum dos nomes apresentados.<\/p>\n<div id=\"fb_share_1\" style=\"float: right; margin-left: 10px;\"><a name=\"fb_share\" type=\"button\" share_url=\"http:\/\/www.orc.com.br\/novo\/politica\/pesquisa-da-associacao-das-emissoras-de-radio-e-tv-de-sp-aponta-tarcisio-de-freitas-com-ampla-vantagem-na-disputa-pelo-governo-de-sp.html\" href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php\">Share<\/a><\/div><div><script src=\"http:\/\/static.ak.fbcdn.net\/connect.php\/js\/FB.Share\" type=\"text\/javascript\"><\/script><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A Associa\u00e7\u00e3o das Emissoras de R\u00e1dio e Televis\u00e3o do Estado de S\u00e3o Paulo (AESP) encomendou ao\u00a0Instituto GERP\u00a0uma pesquisa para avaliar cen\u00e1rios da disputa ao\u00a0Governo de S\u00e3o Paulo\u00a0em 2026. O levantamento foi realizado entre os dias\u00a014 e 20 de agosto de 2025, com\u00a01.000 entrevistados\u00a0em todo o Estado. A margem de erro \u00e9 de\u00a03,16 pontos percentuais\u00a0e o &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":155206,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[14],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/orc.com.br\/novo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Tarcisio4.webp","_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.orc.com.br\/novo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/155205"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.orc.com.br\/novo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.orc.com.br\/novo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.orc.com.br\/novo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.orc.com.br\/novo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=155205"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/www.orc.com.br\/novo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/155205\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":155207,"href":"http:\/\/www.orc.com.br\/novo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/155205\/revisions\/155207"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.orc.com.br\/novo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/155206"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.orc.com.br\/novo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=155205"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.orc.com.br\/novo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=155205"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.orc.com.br\/novo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=155205"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}